Tiny Nicks Playing Picks: 2/12

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Castles

NBA – Mavs / Pelicans over 232 (-110): 6:30 p.m. CT on ESPN

As I've said a couple of times over the past week, the Mavs have averaged over 250 points in their last five games. The Pelicans can also play fast when Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Williamson hit their shots, so I'll be riding the cover for at least one more night, especially a main game on ESPN.

NCAA Basketball – Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State -3 (-110): 8:00 p.m. CT on ESPNU

Another Friday, another undervaluation of that Cleveland State team. I understand to some extent as the metrics don't suggest it is a 14-5 team with a 13-5-1 ATS record. So modeling systems give short spreads and the Vikings continue to cover – often not in the nicest way, but we'll take it.

I think this should be a much more comfortable cover for them as Detroit is overrated having won 7 out of 8 against teams at the end of the conference, most of them very close games. The Titans rely on 3 point shooting in volume as they get the 19th most shots from depth, but at the expense of defense as they are 293rd in defensive efficiency.

Against a team from Cleveland State ranked 17th in 3-point field goal defense, the Vikings will pull them out of their preferred style on the way to another win and cover on Friday.

Degenerate

NCAA Basketball – UW-Milwaukee @ Wright State -16 (-110): 6:00 p.m. CT on ESPN3

Exactly four weeks ago, Wright State lost a game against Cleveland State that was part of a 1-3 stretch that looked just ugly. The Raiders seem to have taken this personally because they've been 7-0, 6-1 ATS ever since and all but one have won more than 20 points with an average margin of 25.4 points.

With Grant Basile, Tanner Holden and Loudon Love, this is sure to be the most talented team on the horizon and the most dominant if they choose to. Milwaukee has had its moments this season but has been on a 2-6 ATS run on the same 4-week track and just got blown out in two home games last weekend. With Wright State we may be nearing the top of the market so I'm buying them here with caution, but this team isn't shy about ramping them up so I'll be rolling with them until this trend stops.

Tiny Nick has had ATS 156-91 (+60.5 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he offers his locks and degenerate picks. Castles are the games he relies on. Degenerate are fun, but riskier tips.