Days away from the NFL’s marquee event in Tampa between the Bucs and Chiefs, player prop sleuth Brad Evans from FTNBets.com scours the Internet for the best early line values. Here’s who he’s jumping on for Super Bowl 55:
Tyreek Hill 91.5 receiving yards (-115, William Hill)
Hill moves with the speed and suddenness of a Reddit Wall Street mob jumping on shorted stocks in an attempt to beat caviar-
eating hedge funders at their own game.
There isn’t a defensive back in the league who can hang with his fast-spinning cartoon-like wheels. It’s no surprise he notched 10.3 yards per target, 14.9 yards per catch and an appreciable 5.53 yards after catch per reception over the season’s entirety. He’s known as a game-breaker, but he’s also equipped with a voluminous route tree.
Dusting Carlton Davis repeatedly in Week 12, he amassed a gargantuan 13 catches for 269 yards and three touchdowns, one of the greatest single-game performances by a receiver in NFL history. Yes, he’ll be the focal point for Todd Bowles to subdue, but his unrivaled separation skills make the task almost impossible. Davis, who’s yielded 1.49 yards per snap to his assignments, may need assistance from a horde of fast-moving zombies to prevent Hill from eclipsing the over.
Leonard Fournette anytime TD (+125, FanDuel)
Shedding his prior ineptitude, whether as a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars or in his inaugural campaign with the Bucs, “Playoff Lenny” has exuded a rough, tumble and productive attitude in the postseason. Against the Fighting Footballs, Saints and Packers, he ran with improved conviction (2.96 YAC per attempt) and was highly active as a pass catcher (17 targets, 14 receptions, 102 receiving yards). With nine red-zone touches over that span and three TDs, he’s a strong candidate to cross the chalk yet again.
Kansas City’s primary vulnerability is defending the run. Including the playoffs, the Chiefs have given up over 4.4 yards per carry to running backs. Whether via ground or air, Fournette is a threat to penetrate the end zone. At plus odds, he’s a sound wager of logging a celebratory spike no matter game flow.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire UNDER 30.5 rush yards (-112, DraftKings)
The CEH Rookie World Tour of Unwanted Futility makes its final stop in Tampa. A first-round pick in reality and fantasy, he failed repeatedly to meet colossal expectations. Before a high-ankle sprain prematurely cut short his regular season, he only sporadically broke through initial contact and contributed marginal results as a pass catcher, coming in at 35th in the league.
Brian Westbrook 2.0 he most certainly was not. Those in August drunk with optimism believing he was a shoo-in for Offensive Rookie of the Year are chugging Pedialyte in a desperate attempt to regain their bearings.
Undrafted RB Darrell Williams has blasted through lines with more conviction and displayed more adequate hands over the past several games. His presence is problematic. So is the matchup.
Against a daunting Tampa front featuring maneater Vita Vea, who’s posted an 8.6% run stop percentage in six games, he’s sure to run
into multiple brick walls. The Bucs have conceded a lowly 3.6 yards per carry this season. Edwards-Helaire is sure to exceed the six carries he logged against Buffalo in the AFC title game, but on roughly 10 attempts he finishes in the 24-28 rushing yards range.
Contact Tom Roeder: 636-0240