2021 Australian Open Tip Sheet: Finest Bets, Worth, Playing Perception | TENNIS.com


Odds available through DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.

Oddsmaker & # 39; s favorite: Ashleigh Barty (+500)

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Barty is a freak of nature. Although she hadn't raced in nearly a year, she showed almost no rust on her title run at the Yarra Valley Classic. I still believe you shouldn't be able to skip a year of competition and win back your first major tournament, but after Barty beat a fiery Garbiñe Muguruza in Saturday's final, I'm less sure.

Barty's draw is fantastic. She will avoid the top two players in her half of the draw – Sofia Kenin and Victoria Azarenka – until the semi-finals and should advance through her quarter, barring some serious mental disappointment. If you want to support Barty to win the tournament by +500, I can't argue against that.

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Before the draw, Osaka seemed like the best bet on the board by far. She has become the gold standard on a hard court and has won three majors in her last eight Grand Slam appearances. She's a much riskier bet thanks to a nightmare section of the draw, but that doesn't change the fact that she's the best player in the tournament – and the world despite the leaderboard.

Osaka's first opponent, 12-time WTA title winner Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, has reached the quarter-finals in Melbourne for three of the last four years. Her likely opponent in the second round, former No. 4 Caroline Garcia, is one of the more dangerous opponents of the first week. Last year's quarter-finalist Ons Jabeur is also in the third round. (We'll be in touch with her in a moment.) By the second week, Osaka will likely face either Angelique Kerber or Muguruza, both of whom have at least two major titles. Osaka's draw may have been faked in the fires of hell, but thanks to the guaranteed rest days she receives after each win, she should be up to the challenge.

Dark Horse: Ons Jabeur (+10000)

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Regardless of her draw, Jabeur is by far the most talented player with at least 100 to 1 chances of winning to win the tournament. Jabeur's talent level is undeniable. Her combination of raw power and finesse is unique on tour. Her trendy UTR rates her as the tournament's ninth best competitor, while DraftKings lists her as the 25th overall favorite. Jabeur loves the conditions in Australia and despite her improved fitness, she will no doubt benefit from the extra days of rest at Grand Slams.

In the past six months, Azarenka, Kenin, Maria Sakkari, Aryna Sabalenka and most recently Kerber have been Jabeur's only hard court losses. She is in the middle of the toughest section of the draw, but she has proven she is a player no one wants to face.

Oddsmaker's favorite: Novak Djokovic (+120)

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The Australian Open is Djokovic's tournament. He has won it seven times in the last 10 years – eight times in total – and has a career record of 75-8 (57-3 since 2011).

You have to think that Djokovic will be more motivated than ever to gain a foothold in the Grand Slam race of all time. After his ATP Cup individual victories against Denis Shapovalov and Alexander Zverev, he is already in the middle of the season. Although his +125 chances of winning alongside Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros offer less return than any other futures bet, it is hard to imagine him losing a best-of-five set match in Melbourne. If you have the capital to support a direct futures bet with minimal return, by all means place the bet.

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After an unsuccessful year, the great Italian seems to be back. With the exception of a form-strong Daniil Medwedew, Berrettini dismantled his ATP Cup competition and prevailed against Dominic Thiem, Gaël Monfils and Roberto Bautista Agut.

Thanks to his disappointing 2020 in which he only went 9-6, Berrettini's value has increased and a $ 10 bet will bring you $ 810. He is in great shape, will be well rested with a Tuesday start, and has the firepower to beat anyone in the tournament on a good day.

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Thanks to the Big Three era, it's better to play the lottery than wagering long-shots and dark horses on the men's majors. The last great seedless champion was Gaston Gaudio in 2004, and the thought of a seedless player winning the Australian Open seems a total impossibility.

But at +70000 or 700 to 1, the Canadian is worth the flight. He's likely to lose his first round player to Medvedev, but of any unset player he has the best chance of upsetting the Russian. If he somehow manages, he'll replace Medvedev's spot in the draw as seed # 4.

Pospisil has the firepower and ability to get Medvedev into trouble. He beat him in Rotterdam last year and lost in a crucial third set in Vienna. Finally healthy, Pospisil is fitter than ever and plays with incredible self-confidence. Since a true long shot hasn't won a major in over 15 years, you might as well go big or go home, and 10 to win 7,000 is very big indeed.